“COVID is over” might be trending in social media circles, but the weekly US death toll tells a different story.
The pace of COVID-19 deaths has remained relatively stable since May, despite a slight increase in July to around 400 per day, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.
“We’re sitting on this horrible plateau,” said Dr. Daniel Griffin, an infectious disease specialist at Pro Health Care in New York and a clinical instructor in medicine at Columbia University. “It’s been like this for a few months, and we’re getting used to it.”
In July, more than 12,500 Americans died of COVID-19, according to USA TODAY analysis.
Coronavirus deaths are similar to the number of flu deaths normally reported during peak season, said David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. A bad flu season in the United States could lead to more than 50,000 deaths.
That doesn’t mean COVID-19 mortality has reached that of the flu, he said, because the peak flu season only lasts about three months. Spread over the year, Dowdy said, there would be about four times as many COVID-19 deaths as flu deaths.
COVID-19 is “like having to live all year in flu season, and that’s not what we do with the flu,” he said. “If we were to do this with the flu, we would be instituting more measures than what we are doing.”
Most Americans who have died from COVID-19 were immunocompromised or over the age of 75, experts said. These patients ranged in vaccination status – from unvaccinated to receiving all of their recommended vaccines and boosters.
What seems to make the biggest difference between patients recovering from COVID-19 or dying, Griffin said, is whether they receive treatment within the first week of diagnosis.
“I can’t remember anyone in my recent memory who did all the right things, got the vaccine and got the right early treatment, and ended up in the hospital and died,” did he declare.
The antiviral Paxlovid, from Pfizer, has been effective in keeping high-risk COVID-19 patients out of hospital. But he is losing esteem among providers and patients as public figures report rebound infections after taking the antiviral, Griffin said.
President Joe Biden, 79, tested positive for coronavirus on Saturday, three days after he tested negative twice and was thought to have recovered. His chief medical adviser, Dr Anthony Fauci, 81, reported a rebound in infection in June.
What we know:Biden’s COVID-19 ‘rebound’ not common but not serious, White House says
CDC advice:People treated with Paxlovid who experience a COVID-19 rebound should self-isolate again for 5 days
Although it looks like more rebound infections are being reported, Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House’s COVID-19 response coordinator, said the case rate is likely around 5%. Most people aren’t tested as often as health officials, Jha said in a series of tweets on Monday.
It is unclear whether rebounding after taking the antiviral is different from rebounding without medication. In the trial that led to Paxlovid’s approval, 2% of those who took the drug and almost the same percentage of those who did not experienced rebounds.
Uncertainty surrounding antivirals and other COVID-19 treatments may contribute to preventable deaths, Griffin said.
“A lot of clinicians read the popular press, and that’s where they get their picture,” he said. “You have a five-day opportunity to reduce disease progression, and once that window is closed, it’s closed.”
A monoclonal antibody called Evusheld from AstraZeneca has prevented severe disease in people with weakened immune systems who may not get full protection from vaccines. It provides long-lasting protection, but Griffin said some vendors don’t recommend it for eligible patients.
“It’s not an easy lift,” he said. “You can’t just write a prescription. It still only goes to certain locations, and there’s a whole process to register your patient.
Some doctors consider it “an uncompensated and time-consuming facelift,” he said, and prescribe other drugs that are not suitable for early treatment, such as steroids. high dose.
Nearly 92% of Americans over 65 are fully immunized and about 70% have received at least one booster, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Reformulated COVID-19 booster shots targeting the omicron variant of the coronavirus are likely this fall, but health experts do not expect them to have a significant impact on the death rate.
“The vaccines we already have are still very effective against serious illness and death…so I don’t think bivalent vaccines are going to be a game-changer in that regard,” Dowdy said. “What they can do is help curb transmission somewhat because they can be more effective against the infection.”
Experts said what will protect people at high risk from severe COVID-19 and death is staying up to date on recommended vaccines and seeking early treatment with proven therapies.
“This plateau now, horrible as it is, is unfortunately lower than it will be if we don’t do a great job this fall with reminders and better education on how to properly handle COVID,” Griffin said. .
Contributor: Karen Weintraub, USA TODAY. Follow Adrianna Rodriguez on Twitter: @AdriannaUSAT.
Coverage of patient health and safety at USA TODAY is made possible in part by a grant from the Masimo Foundation for Ethics, Innovation and Competition in Healthcare. The Masimo Foundation does not provide editorial contributions.
